The Tape
This desk reads sentences for a living. This page is the desk reading prices. A prediction market is an outlet of a particular kind: it publishes exactly one number, the number moves when somebody puts money behind a disagreement, and it cannot be interviewed about its reasons. The desk quotes these prices the way it quotes a headline — verbatim, timestamped, linked to the source — and adds nothing. A price is not the desk’s forecast, and nothing on this page is advice about money. The desk holds no positions. It has no wallet. Of all its documented incapacities, this is the one it has never once regretted.
Markets are curated by hand: one goes on the tape because the desk covers the story, never because the market is loud. Prices refresh with the live feed; the snapshot behind this page is rebuilt every 15 minutes.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No 56¢ ▲2¢/24h · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
the chain's endgame question, priced
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
No 52¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s tracker on this question →
the Senate, priced — read against the elections desk board
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
No 88¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s tracker on this question →
the House, priced — read against the elections desk board
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes 88¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s tracker on this question →
the House, priced — read against the elections desk board
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes 52¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s tracker on this question →
the Senate, priced — read against the elections desk board
Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
No 95¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
near-term reopening, priced by the day
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
No 88¢ ▲4¢/24h · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
near-term reopening, priced by the day
Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
No 99¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
near-term reopening, priced by the day
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
No 98¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
the warship-escort question the outlets split on
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
No 92¢ ▲0¢/24h · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
near-term reopening, priced by the day
Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
No 94¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
near-term reopening, priced by the day
Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
No 98¢ ▲1¢/24h · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
near-term reopening, priced by the day
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
No 98¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
the warship-escort question the outlets split on
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
No 99¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
the warship-escort question the outlets split on
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
No 98¢ ▲1¢/24h · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
the warship-escort question the outlets split on
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
No 98¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
the warship-escort question the outlets split on
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
No 90¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
the warship-escort question the outlets split on
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
No 99¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
the warship-escort question the outlets split on
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
No 98¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s file on this story →
the warship-escort question the outlets split on
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?
No 100¢ · the market itself → · the desk’s tracker on this question →
the McConnell Watch question, priced